35 improbable things before breakfast


“Robin Bain did it.”

“I can’t believe that!” said Alice.

“Can’t you?” the Queen said in a pitying tone. “Try again: draw a long breath, and shut your eyes.”

Alice laughed. “There’s no use trying,” she said: “one can’t believe such improbable things.”

“I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as 35 improbable things before breakfast.”

The list below was originally compiled by David Farrar during David Bain’s retrial in 2009.

  1. It was a lucky guess when David Bain told 111 ambulance officer they are all dead, despite later saying he only saw two bodies.
  2. Again a lucky guess when David Bain told police officer they are all dead.
  3. The 25 minute gap between David Bain finding his family dead and calling 111 is in no way connected with trying to wash clothes and remove blood.
  4. The bruise on David’s head and scratches on his chest and graze on his knee none of which he could explain were just a coincidence.
  5. The lens from his glasses found in Stephen’s room happened weeks ago and he never noticed OR someone else had borrowed the glasses.
  6. The lack of fresh injuries on Robin despite the massive struggle with Stephen is just the product of healthy living.
  7. David’s finger prints on gun are from a previous time.
  8. David telling a friend he had premonition something bad was going to happen was a genuine psychic experience.
  9. Stephen’s blood on David’s clothing was nothing to do with the struggle OR someone else borrowed his clothes.
  10. Robin managed to execute his family on a full bladder.
  11. The lock and key to the rifle being found in David’s room is not relevant as they were obviously placed there.
  12. Robin decided to wash David’s green jersey to remove blood.
  13. David’s bloody palm print on the washing machine was from him checking the bodies.
  14. The Ambulance officer was wrong when he said in his opinion Bain was pretending to have a fit.
  15. Robin Bain would logically wear gloves to prevent fingerprints despite it being a murder-suicide.
  16. That Robin Bain would type a message on a computer for David telling him he is the only one who deserves to live, instead of writing a note. (A hand written note incidentally would have cleared David.)
  17. Also that having just shot his family, and knowing David was due home, that Robin would wait 44 seconds for the computer to boot up to leave a message.
  18. Robin would decide David deserved to live, but go out of his way to frame him for murder.
  19. Robin Bain placed fibres from David’s jersey under Stephen’s finger nails.
  20. Robin Bain shot himself with a gun in the most awkward way possible.
  21. That Robin Bain changed jerseys after he had killed his family and in particular Stephen Bain, washed the jersey, hung it on the line and then change into a brown jersey before killing himself.
  22. That there is a logical reason that David Bain can not account for the injuries on his face, the bruise or the scraped knee, yet knows he did not have them during his paper run.
  23. That Robin Bain put blood on the inside of David’s duvet and on his light switch.
  24. That there is an innocent explanation for why David says he put on washing before he discovered the bodies, yet there is a blood print on the washing machine.
  25. That Laniet was being paranoid when she told friends she was scared of David.
  26. That the “family meeting” David called the previous night and insisted everyone attended was not a way to make sure everyone would be at home to kill.
  27. That Robin Bain would wear a hat while shooting himself in the head.
  28. That even though David told a relative he hated his father, his father did not know this and deliberately decided David was the only one who deserved to live.
  29. That David either imagined hearing Laniet gurgling or she gurgled 20 minutes after death.
  30. That Laniet’s allegations of incest with Robin were true, as were her claims she had given birth three times by the age of 12 and a half.
  31. That Robin Bain managed to kill four family members without a single trace of his blood, skin, or DNA being left at the scene.
  32. That it is a coincidence that on the morning of the murders David Bain took his dog onto a property, ensuring he would be noticed to give him an alibi.
  33. That the magazine found balanced on an edge next to Robin was not placed there by David but fell onto its edge from Robin’s arms.
  34. That a sickly Robin Bain managed to overpower his teenage son who put up a furious fight.
  35. That Robin Bain went and got the newspaper from outside, despite planning to shoot himself.

Please read David Farrar’s post on the David Bain case for more (and the list of 3 somewhat unlikely things to believe before breakfast if you think David did it).

12 thoughts on “35 improbable things before breakfast”

  1. The first 6 have factually incorrect assumptions and do not have to be believed to consider David innocent.
    7. It is almost certain that David’s fingerprints would be on his own gun from previous use.
    8 does not have to be believed to consider David innocent.
    9 is consistent with David’s version of events.
    10 may be factually incorrect according to expert testimony.

    This list is spin.

  2. This list is spin.

    I disagree, but unfortunately I don’t have time to do more than that right now.

    Reed, who do you think did it?

  3. Counter spin means to spin the other way. I’d already read some of their spin. It was linked to from Whaleoil’s blog.

    They don’t do justice to the side of the story they disagree with.

  4. On the grounds of it being the more plausible story and as far as I can tell it is the best fit with the evidence.

    Beyond reasonable doubt?
    No but maybe it would be if the Police hadn’t been trying to make the evidence point to David.

    On the balance of probability?
    Yes, unless the account of evidence in the Binnie Report is incorrect.

  5. A specific example…
    The list above misleadingly refers to “David’s green jersey.”

    David claims [edited for fact correction] that that jersey was his father’s (which Arawa wore sometimes.) The jersey was too small for David – 6 inches too short in the sleeve – demonstrated at trial. So it’s not reasonable to refer to the jersey as “David’s green jersey.”

    Stephen had fibres from the green jersey under his fingernails probably from the struggle. It’s reasonable to conclude that Stephen’s killer was wearing the green jersey.

    This evidence fits Robin and doesn’t fit David.

  6. Wool shrinks in the wash. Even if the jersey was too small to start with, David could still squeeze into it. That would explain why Stephen’s blood was found on the upper and lower back and lower front of David’s t-shirt. It wasn’t big enough to shield the t-shirt from the blood.

  7. There’s no suggestion in evidence that the jersey shrunk.

    The blood stains on David’s shirt showed no signs of having the V neck jersey obstruction.

    David could have squeezed into this jersey but why would he?

  8. There’s no evidence it didn’t shrink either. Any knitted garment can shrink (not just wool), especially if given a full wash as David says he did (tests showed it at ~1 hour).

    The blood on the upper back of his tshirt was probably transferred as he took the bloody jersey off. Lower front and back of tshirt are obvious places to grab in a fight. If you have an innocent explanation for this blood I’d be keen to hear it.

    He squeezed into the jersey in case it was connected to the murders – so he could say “too small for me”.

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